This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the Mouhoun River Basin, Burkina Faso. Eight downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6, provided by the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 program (ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, MIROC6, MIROC-ES2L, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NESM3), were employed. The ensemble mean of these models was considered for the historical period (1960–2014) and for future projections (2015–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic). These climate data were used as inputs to the GR6J hydrological model to simulate streamflow up to 2100. The analysis focused on the interannual mean of hydro-climatic projections for three time horizons: near-term (2025–2054), mid-term (2055–2084), and long-term (2071–2100), compared with the reference period 1981–2010. Results show a general increase in streamflow across all scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, anomalies reach +43.4% in the near term but gradually decline (+22.4% and +12.9%), indicating a tendency to return toward historical conditions. SSP2-4.5 exhibits a stronger increase (+51.2%, +36.2%, +35.3%) but also a progressive decline. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 reveals a sharp intensification of flows, with anomalies of +78.7%, +107%, and +110%, highlighting an increased risk of long-term hydrological imbalance. Regarding rainfall, an increase is observed in the northern basin under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 (+95 mm, +60 mm, +40 mm; and +115 mm, +105 mm, +90 mm across periods), with an overall trend returning to historical levels. A similar pattern is observed in the south, with temporary increases followed by a downward trend. However, under SSP5-8.5, rainfall rises sharply in both the north (+150 mm, +210 mm, +230 mm) and the south, suggesting a sustained intensification. These results underscore the strong hydro-climatic variability across scenarios and time horizons. They highlight the urgent need for integrated water resource management strategies, particularly in the agricultural sector, to meet the growing demands of an expanding population and to mitigate risks associated with future hydrological excesses or deficits.
| Published in | Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science (Volume 14, Issue 6) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11 |
| Page(s) | 163-174 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Mouhoun River Basin, Streamflow, Climate Models, Hydrological Model
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APA Style
Bikie, G. A. D., Ye, S. G., Kam, S. (2025). Hydroclimatic Projections for the Mouhoun Basin in Burkina Faso by the Year 2100. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 14(6), 163-174. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11
ACS Style
Bikie, G. A. D.; Ye, S. G.; Kam, S. Hydroclimatic Projections for the Mouhoun Basin in Burkina Faso by the Year 2100. J. Water Resour. Ocean Sci. 2025, 14(6), 163-174. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11
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Download@article{10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11,
author = {Gnirako Ahmed Donatien Bikie and Siedouba Georges Ye and Sie Kam},
title = {Hydroclimatic Projections for the Mouhoun Basin in Burkina Faso by the Year 2100
},
journal = {Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science},
volume = {14},
number = {6},
pages = {163-174},
doi = {10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wros.20251406.11},
abstract = {This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the Mouhoun River Basin, Burkina Faso. Eight downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6, provided by the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 program (ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, MIROC6, MIROC-ES2L, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NESM3), were employed. The ensemble mean of these models was considered for the historical period (1960–2014) and for future projections (2015–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic). These climate data were used as inputs to the GR6J hydrological model to simulate streamflow up to 2100. The analysis focused on the interannual mean of hydro-climatic projections for three time horizons: near-term (2025–2054), mid-term (2055–2084), and long-term (2071–2100), compared with the reference period 1981–2010. Results show a general increase in streamflow across all scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, anomalies reach +43.4% in the near term but gradually decline (+22.4% and +12.9%), indicating a tendency to return toward historical conditions. SSP2-4.5 exhibits a stronger increase (+51.2%, +36.2%, +35.3%) but also a progressive decline. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 reveals a sharp intensification of flows, with anomalies of +78.7%, +107%, and +110%, highlighting an increased risk of long-term hydrological imbalance. Regarding rainfall, an increase is observed in the northern basin under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 (+95 mm, +60 mm, +40 mm; and +115 mm, +105 mm, +90 mm across periods), with an overall trend returning to historical levels. A similar pattern is observed in the south, with temporary increases followed by a downward trend. However, under SSP5-8.5, rainfall rises sharply in both the north (+150 mm, +210 mm, +230 mm) and the south, suggesting a sustained intensification. These results underscore the strong hydro-climatic variability across scenarios and time horizons. They highlight the urgent need for integrated water resource management strategies, particularly in the agricultural sector, to meet the growing demands of an expanding population and to mitigate risks associated with future hydrological excesses or deficits.
},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Hydroclimatic Projections for the Mouhoun Basin in Burkina Faso by the Year 2100 AU - Gnirako Ahmed Donatien Bikie AU - Siedouba Georges Ye AU - Sie Kam Y1 - 2025/11/12 PY - 2025 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11 DO - 10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11 T2 - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science JF - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science JO - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science SP - 163 EP - 174 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-7993 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20251406.11 AB - This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the Mouhoun River Basin, Burkina Faso. Eight downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6, provided by the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 program (ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, MIROC6, MIROC-ES2L, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NESM3), were employed. The ensemble mean of these models was considered for the historical period (1960–2014) and for future projections (2015–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (optimistic), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic). These climate data were used as inputs to the GR6J hydrological model to simulate streamflow up to 2100. The analysis focused on the interannual mean of hydro-climatic projections for three time horizons: near-term (2025–2054), mid-term (2055–2084), and long-term (2071–2100), compared with the reference period 1981–2010. Results show a general increase in streamflow across all scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, anomalies reach +43.4% in the near term but gradually decline (+22.4% and +12.9%), indicating a tendency to return toward historical conditions. SSP2-4.5 exhibits a stronger increase (+51.2%, +36.2%, +35.3%) but also a progressive decline. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 reveals a sharp intensification of flows, with anomalies of +78.7%, +107%, and +110%, highlighting an increased risk of long-term hydrological imbalance. Regarding rainfall, an increase is observed in the northern basin under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 (+95 mm, +60 mm, +40 mm; and +115 mm, +105 mm, +90 mm across periods), with an overall trend returning to historical levels. A similar pattern is observed in the south, with temporary increases followed by a downward trend. However, under SSP5-8.5, rainfall rises sharply in both the north (+150 mm, +210 mm, +230 mm) and the south, suggesting a sustained intensification. These results underscore the strong hydro-climatic variability across scenarios and time horizons. They highlight the urgent need for integrated water resource management strategies, particularly in the agricultural sector, to meet the growing demands of an expanding population and to mitigate risks associated with future hydrological excesses or deficits. VL - 14 IS - 6 ER -
Physics Department, Joseph KI-ZERBO University, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
National Center for Scientific and Technological Research (CNRST), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Physics Department, Joseph KI-ZERBO University, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
